Calibration
Model Parameter Settings
Adjust the structural thresholds and coupling coefficients the simulation evaluates against. These are the calibration choices that determine how sensitively the model responds to threats and interventions. All values are empirically grounded but contestable — this panel makes the choices explicit and allows sensitivity testing.
ℹ
Defaults are calibrated to the Nordic/North European empirical baseline (Finland 2024 retrodiction anchor). Click Apply to simulator to save settings, then reload the simulator in the same browser tab — it reads these values on startup. A "⚙ Custom calibration active" indicator will appear in the simulator sidebar. Toggle any parameter off to deactivate it without deleting the value.
Stability Thresholds — Variable Regime Boundaries
The thresholds at which each variable's zone classification changes (Stable / Warning / Critical). These determine the coloured status indicators in the simulator and the tipping point trigger evaluations.
Trust Capital — Stable Threshold THR.T.s Threshold
Below this level Trust is no longer considered stable. Sets the green-zone floor for the Trust Capital indicator and the T component of the TCC tipping point warning.
Active
55 (low bar)T stable floor78 (demanding)
65
↑ threshold: more scenarios flagged stressed ↓ threshold: wider stable zone affects TCC tipping point warning
Default: 65 — Putnam (2000) high-trust Nordic range begins ~65–70 on composite measures
Cultural Coherence — Stable Threshold THR.CC.s Threshold
Below this level Cultural Coherence is flagged as deteriorating. CC is particularly sensitive because it feeds into NP (punisher proportion) and amplifies internal disintegrator dynamics when below threshold.
Active
50CC stable floor72
60
↑ threshold: wider warning zone, CC triggers faster NP-CC coupling activates at CC<55 regardless of this setting
Default: 60 — calibrated to observed cultural coherence measures at Nordic welfare state baseline
Institutional Integrity — Stable Threshold THR.II.s Threshold
Institutional Integrity is set demanding (70) because Nordic welfare states depend on high institutional quality. Below this level the Institutional Capture tipping point enters warning range. II is also the fastest variable to cross PNR (irreversibility at II<35).
Active
58 (permissive)II stable floor82 (strict)
70
High II threshold: appropriate for mature Nordic welfare state Lower for Baltic/transition-economy contexts
Default: 70 — Rothstein (2011): rule of law quality threshold for sustainable welfare
Normative Punisher Proportion — Stable Threshold THR.NP.s Threshold
The share of the population actively maintaining cooperative norms. When NP falls below this the model flags declining norm maintenance. Note: the behavioural threshold where T starts declining is NP<40 — this display threshold sets the warning indicator only.
Active
40 (minimal)NP stable floor70 (demanding)
55
T−1/period when NP<40 (behavioural, not affected by this threshold) Collapse trigger at NP<25 (not affected by this threshold)
Default: 55 — Fehr & Gächter (2002): cooperative norm maintenance requires 50–60% punisher share
Threat Coupling Coefficients — Per-Unit Impact Rates
How strongly each threat vector impacts the target variable per slider unit (0–10). Expressed as percentage-points per unit of threat intensity. These are the core calibration choices of the model — adjusting them tests structural assumptions about causal strength.
IES → Cultural Coherence Coupling COEF_IES Coupling
Per-unit IES pressure impact on CC. At the default of 40 (0.40 per unit), IES=5 reduces CC by 2 per period; IES=10 by 4. Represents the rate at which intruding ethical systems displace the normative substrate of cultural coherence.
Active
20% (weak)IES→CC per unit ×10060% (strong)
40
IES=10: CC − 4/period at default Also triggers II−2 if IES>7 and SC<50
Default: 40 — Caldwell (2009), Roy (2019): moderate-to-strong V4 trajectory analogy over 5yr windows
EN → Trust Capital Coupling COEF_EN Coupling
Per-unit criminal network exploitation impact on Trust. At 35 (0.35/unit), EN=10 reduces T by ~3.5 per period. Reflects Gambetta (1993): organised crime is a trust-destroying industry — each unit of EN pressure systematically degrades generalised social trust.
Active
15% (resilient)EN→T per unit ×10055% (fragile)
35
EN=10: T − 3.5/period at default Also triggers II−2 and IE−1 if EN>5 and SC<55 Naivety tax: EV penalty if T<55
Default: 35 — Gambetta (1993), Putnam (2000): trust erosion rate under systematic organised crime pressure
EA → Information Environment Coupling COEF_EA Coupling
Per-unit external adversary hybrid operations impact on IE. At 60 (0.60/unit), EA=10 reduces IE by 6 per period. The Gerasimov doctrine targets the information environment as the primary vector; this is the highest coefficient in the model, reflecting that asymmetric information warfare is the most direct threat to IE.
Active
30% (limited reach)EA→IE per unit ×10085% (full penetration)
60
EA=10: IE − 6/period at default IE cascade: if IE<45, additional CC and T penalty Kompromat: EI−3 if EA>7 and EI<55
Default: 60 — Gerasimov (2013), Renz (2016): information environment is the primary vector in hybrid warfare doctrine
Welfare Trap → Enterprise Climate Coupling COEF_WT Coupling
Per-unit welfare trap intensity impact on EC. At 40 (0.40/unit), WT=6 (Finland 2024 baseline) reduces EC by 2.4 per period. This is the structural fiscal drag: high marginal tax rates and transfer dependency progressively suppress entrepreneurial activity.
Active
20% (mild drag)WT→EC per unit ×10065% (severe)
40
WT=6 (Finland baseline): EC − 2.4/period at default As EC falls, EV follows; below EC=30 → talent desert cascade
Default: 40 — Lindbeck (1995), Sinn (1995): welfare trap marginal rate effect on enterprise formation
Normative Punisher (NP) Dynamics
Parameters governing how the normative punisher share evolves. NP is the most complex variable in the model: it has stochastic secular drift, a feedback from IPS (ideological punisher suppression), and a coupling to CC and Trust. These parameters are the most empirically contested.
IPS High-Suppression Threshold IPS_THR NP Dynamics
Above this IPS slider value, the model switches from the low-suppression regime (NP−IPS×0.25/period) to the high-suppression regime (NP−IPS×0.50/period). This threshold represents the point at which ideological punisher suppression becomes systemically organised rather than marginal.
Active
3 (early onset)IPS high-regime trigger8 (late onset)
5
Below threshold: NP − IPS×0.25/period Above threshold: NP − IPS×0.50/period (regime jump)
Default: 5 — Fehr & Gächter (2002): antisocial punishment becomes systematic above moderate coordination
IPS High-Regime NP Suppression Rate COEF_IPS_HI NP Dynamics
When IPS is above threshold, NP is reduced by IPS × this coefficient per period. At default 50 (0.50), IPS=8 suppresses NP by 4 per period in high-regime. This models Herrmann et al. (2008): cross-cultural evidence that antisocial punishment can eliminate cooperative norms when sufficiently organised.
Active
25% (resilient NP)IPS high-regime rate ×10075% (fragile NP)
50
IPS=10 above threshold: NP − 5/period at default
Default: 50 — Herrmann et al. (2008): antisocial punishment efficacy in Western vs. other-norm populations
NP Secular Drift Probability NP_DRIFT_P NP Dynamics
Each period there is this probability that NP declines by 1 due to secular normative erosion — independent of any explicit threat. This makes NP (and therefore the simulation) partially stochastic: repeated runs from the same initial state will diverge. Captures long-run secularisation and norm erosion dynamics.
Active
0% (deterministic)drift probability %60% (strong erosion)
30%
At 30%: expected NP−0.3/period from drift alone Set to 0% to make runs fully deterministic (reproducible) Set high to model rapid secularisation contexts
Default: 30% — Inglehart & Welzel (2005): values change at ~0.3 units/year on composite measures in post-industrial societies
0 changes All parameters at defaults